When the Web Closes the Door

by Narain Jashanmal on August 4th, 2025

“AI Overviews now has over 2 billion monthly users across more than 200 countries and territories and 40 languages” and that they are “driving over 10% more queries globally for the types of queries that show them.“ (Alphabet Q2’25 Earnings)

1. The Media Migration

Pugpig’s 2025 Media App Report marks a tipping point: an unprecedented share of newsrooms now push readers toward subscriber‑only apps. The draw is obvious. Inside an app, publishers gain first‑party data, steadier conversion funnels, and insulation from the volatility of platform-driven changes to reach and engagement. What they surrender in casual and promiscuous web traffic they recoup in lifetime value and pricing power.

Key stat: Day 1 retention sits at 71%—nearly 3× the global average—while Day 30 retention is more than 6× higher at 46%. (Pugpig, 2025 Media App Report)

Apps aren’t about looking backward, they’re a strategic answer to platforms that now ration reach: Google’s AI Overviews squeeze out organic links, TikTok’s opaque feeds bury brands, and Facebook continues to push publisher content to the margins. When the open web feels like rented billboard space, a gated community starts to look like home.

The shift isn’t limited to media. Retailers are reading the same signals, and responding with their own migrations.

2. Commerce Hears the Echo

Amazon’s abrupt retreat from Google Shopping ads tells the same story in retail language. As of late July 2025, Amazon executed a “dramatic international exit” from Google Shopping, dropping their U.S. impression share from about 60% to zero—a move described by industry experts as “unprecedented” and a major inflection point for retail ad dynamics. This opens a window for competitors, shifting auction dynamics and creating new opportunities for rival advertisers. Why bankroll a channel that increasingly keeps shoppers inside Google’s own checkout carousel? Amazon would rather funnel budget into Prime, Buy with Prime, and its fast‑growing retail‑media network—places where every click compounds inside its own loop.

Smaller merchants are taking note. Agency dashboards already show paid‑search allocations drifting toward conversion‑guaranteed arenas: Meta’s Advantage+ campaigns, Apple Search Ads, and marketplace placements where attribution is certain and margins are visible. Meta’s Advantage+ Shopping campaigns, in particular, have become a significant driver of Meta’s advertising business, using AI and experiencing rapid revenue growth for brands seeking more controlled, attributable conversions.

Apple Search Ads are regarded as an efficient and intentional way to acquire app installs, outperforming other channels like Facebook and Google Ads for many developers due to their high intent placements and strong conversion rates.

As both media and commerce pull audiences into controlled environments, new AI-powered surfaces are accelerating the collapse of traditional boundaries between discovery, recommendation, and transaction.

The question becomes: what does sustainable reach look like when distribution is increasingly rented, not owned?

3. Distribution You Don’t Own ≠ Sustainable Reach

Platform reach still matters, but only as an on‑ramp. The middle path gaining traction is:

Discovery on public surfaces. Headlines, short‑form video, and structured data win the glance.
Hand‑off to controlled environments. Apps, newsletters, messaging channels, and community spaces capture identity.
Compounding value behind the gate. Membership perks, personalized merchandising, and push alerts extend LTV.

Each step should tighten the feedback loop between audience behavior and product decisions. A surface that can’t feed that loop is a nice‑to‑have, not core distribution.

This logic is shaping the strategic calculus for every major player in the ecosystem.

4. Implications by Player

Each major player is reacting to a rapidly shifting landscape, where today’s competitor may be tomorrow’s partner, and the only constant is the need to adapt.

Meta: With measurable conversions at a premium, brands are pouring budget into Advantage+ campaigns. Meta’s AI-driven targeting offers scale, but app-store privacy controls and platform policies still limit signal quality, forcing marketers to balance automation with experimentation.
Apple: For iOS, App Store search has become the new “page one” for app discovery: Apple reports that 70% of App Store visitors use search to find apps, and nearly 65% of downloads happen directly after a search. As regulators scrutinize the 30% fee, the real contest is for premium ad slots, where competition is intensifying and the rules are in constant flux.
Google: As AI-generated answers and new search engine results page (SERP) formats compress organic visibility, Google is doubling down on paid surfaces and its own checkout experiences. Retailers face shrinking real estate for free discovery, rising acquisition costs, and a platform that increasingly acts as both gatekeeper and competitor.
Shopify: Their developer ecosystem is among the most mature in commerce - spanning apps, themes, and headless builds - but the Shop app, which could be one of Shopify’s hedges against the trends discussed in this essay, remains a closed environment. For now, partners can’t extend or customize how they appear in Shop; they simply show up as Shopify sees fit. If Shopify wants Shop to become a true programmable owned surface, it will need to rethink its developer strategy and open new doors for third-party innovation.
OpenAI: With Shopify now an official search partner and deeper integrations reportedly in development, OpenAI is positioning ChatGPT as a new AI-powered shopping surface, one that could compress the distance between discovery and purchase even further. For brands and platforms alike, the implications are still emerging, but the direction is clear: commerce is moving wherever the next interface - algorithmic or conversational - can capture intent and close the loop.

If ChatGPT becomes a pay-to-play marketing platform, “that’s very concerning to me,” said Liz Williams, founder of the coat brand The Checkroom. “I don’t see it being a space that I could compete in, especially against Amazon and H&M and bigger brands. I can see where this would be helpful to companies that already are ranking high in Google, but I don’t see it being something I could afford.” (What a ChatGPT checkout system could mean for retail - ModernRetail)

5. Looking Ahead

Expect the compression to continue. AI summaries and conversational interfaces will further squeeze SERP real estate and collapse the gap between discovery and purchase. Apps are on track to morph into multi-purpose membership hubs, bundling content, commerce, and community to maximize retention and lifetime value. Retail ad budgets will increasingly favor closed-loop channels - ideally that funnel into 1p native checkout - where attribution is certain and margins are visible. Meanwhile, the next contested “owned” surfaces such as connected TV apps, car dashboards, wearables, and AI-native interfaces are already drawing investment, as brands look for any edge in controlling access to their audiences.

The pattern predictably repeats itself: every new platform gate narrows the window for open discovery, and every closed-loop channel raises the cost of admission. The brands that adapt fastest will be those that treat public reach as a launchpad, not a lifeline.

6. The Strategic Question

Every public touchpoint now carries a tax, either explicit in fees or implicit in data loss. The sooner a brand defines the narrow role of each rented surface in a funnel that must eventually point inward, the less it will pay when the next platform gate swings shut.

→ Prompt for leaders: Map your top five acquisition channels and pinpoint where first-party data enters your system. If it only happens at checkout, you’re renting—not owning—the customer relationship.